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David v Goliath in Gaza
Summary: despite Israeli claims and contrary to much of the reporting in Western media outlets, Israel’s war in Gaza is not going well but as it persists with its genocidal campaign risks grow of a regional conflagration.
The war on Gaza has come at an immense cost. At the time of writing the Gaza Ministry of Health says over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed and 66,000 wounded and more than half the buildings have been destroyed or damaged.
There is no way of knowing exactly how many of the dead are Hamas fighters as it is impossible to establish a methodical way of measuring numbers killed, but Israel has repeatedly spoken of the group being “severely weakened”, a claim amplified systematically, deliberately and voluntarily in compliant Western media.
However U.S. intelligence agencies recently estimated Hamas has lost just 20% to 30% of its fighters, far short of Israel’s goal of destroying the group and as many of the hostages have also not been released and rockets continue to be fired from Gaza, Israel has failed to achieve any of its stated war objectives.
Assuming no hitherto unknown way of eliminating the tunnels unexpectedly emerges, and the Palestinian resistance does not run out of weapons and ammunition, which seems unlikely, the resistance is now on track to win the war even if it takes a few more months.
Put simply, this is because neither the Israeli military nor public can stomach long wars and Israel’s internal divisions, which predated 7 October and which we have written about in the past, have been tearing the country apart.
There are many signs things are going badly for the Israelis. The IDF says 560 soldiers have been killed so far. Given its record for truth telling it is safe to say that means the real number is several times higher. Nearly half a million Israeli citizens have fled the country, Sunday was the busiest day since October 7 with 30,000 Israelis leaving Ben Gurion Airport, the economy is suffering and 300,000 additional psychiatric patients are reported to need treatment due to war-related trauma. Israeli mental health bosses have warned the national mental health system is on the verge of collapse.
More importantly, huge political rifts continue growing wider both within the government and among the general public.
An Israeli soldier interrogating a wounded Palestinian in West Gaza city [photo credit: IDF]At the public level, the hostages’ relatives are wreaking havoc for Netanyahu, blocking traffic outside his house in Jerusalem and in December bursting into a committee meeting in Israel’s parliament.
On the governmental level, Israel’s war cabinet, which has overall responsibility for the Gaza campaign, is deeply split about strategy and how to bring the hostages home.
IDF Chief of Staff and war cabinet member Gadi Eisenkot has said it was time to “say bravely that it is impossible to return the hostages alive in the near future without an agreement [with Hamas]”, and that Israel should consider halting the fighting for a “significant” period of time as part of any such deal.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on the other hand have repeatedly argued that the only way to bring the hostages home is to continue the war by maintaining intense military pressure on Hamas.
Then there is the extreme right in the Netanyahu government, such as the Ministers of Finance, National Security and Heritage. They endorse the rebuilding of settlements in Gaza, the “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians and even dropping a nuclear bomb.
These internal disputes over how to prosecute the war go to the heart of Israel’s military strategy and are crippling national morale and the war effort.
Furthermore, as Sami Hamdi explained in last Thursday’s podcast, the longer the war goes on the greater the chance it will spread in the region, potentially with very far-reaching consequences.
The biggest risk in terms of escalation remains the possibility of a full-blown conflict with Iran. So many potential clash points exist between the US and Iran throughout the region if the war does not stop this seems almost inevitable sooner or later. Whether it happens in days, weeks, months or years, nobody can say.
In Yemen, the US and its partners are steadily being sucked into a quagmire of their own making by picking a fight with the Huthis which they can never hope to win.
The US and UK may just about protect their own vessels but after 9 years of war with Saudi Arabia the resilience of the Huthis to withstand external attacks is undiminished and protecting the 50 odd merchant ships passing through the Bab Al Mandeb each day is a losing proposition. In fact, since the US began its strikes on the Huthis last month the rate of attacks has actually increased.
If these strikes continue, the Huthis have already warned there will be consequences. And it could be Saudi Arabia taking the first hits. A limited strike like the one on the Abqaiq–Khurais crude oil stabilisation plant in 2019 would be manageable, but if a bigger war breaks out the Saudis could soon be in very serious trouble. Their nightmare scenario: Huthis invade from the south, Iran-backed militia from Iraq attack from the north, sleeper cells in the Eastern Province, Kuwait and Bahrain strike from the east, thousands of missiles hit targets throughout Saudi Arabia and the regime collapses.
In the West Bank, with Palestinian deaths closing in on 400 and settler vigilantes rampaging unchecked, another powder keg could explode at any time.
If the Palestinians there lose what little faith they have left in the Palestinian Authority they can simply confiscate PA police weapons and turn them on Occupation troops and settlers, opening a new front against Israel.
Egypt and Jordan could also see significant escalations in 2024 if the war continues, more remote possibilities to be sure but nothing can be ruled out.
Egypt is in far worse shape economically than it was in January 2011 when the country erupted in popular revolution and Jordan has been witnessing the largest wave of solidarity with Palestine in its history, including a general strike observed by millions.
So far the vast majority of Jordanians and Egyptians have stopped short of directly accusing their leaders of betrayal and complicity in Israel’s genocide but this could change at any time and if it does history shows the situation can unravel fast.
Some in the US administration and thoughtful Israelis understand that continuing the war poses more danger to Israel now than stopping it. They can see that the longer it goes on, the more Israel delegitimises itself, threatening the very existence of the state.
Preventing Israel’s demise requires an immediate end to the war but, crucially, in a way in which Hamas cannot be seen to win. The obvious way to achieve this would be through the peace talks now going on in Paris.
If Hamas can be persuaded to accept a temporary truce, which it currently refuses without guarantees for a longer-term ceasefire, this would serve both to save Israel’s face and at the same time relieve the pressure on Joe Biden by showing the world he has done his utmost to end the bloodshed. This could then be extended and extended until it became permanent.
Ironically, Biden is actually keener to stop the war and save Israel than Netanyahu, whose main priority is staying out of prison. Unfortunately for Biden however, within his administration support for Netanyahu, though dented, remains strong, with the Israeli PM even claiming he has more support than the president. Just as the UK has to have its Gaza policy dictated by the US, so Biden has little choice but to go along with Netanyahu because he cannot afford to be seen to be undermining him or letting Israel down.
Biden’s desire to stop the war is not because he has any sympathy for the Palestinians. Rather it is for political reasons due to the massive shift in public sentiment both in America and internationally as the world recoils from the genocidal tactics the IDF is deploying.
In America, thus far the shift has been restricted mainly to young people, not Washington's powerful lobbies, but divisions are deepening and splintering the Democratic caucus.
Internationally, the US is facing mounting accusations of double standards and hypocrisy, especially, as Tharwa Boulifi observed in last Friday’s newsletter, after the bombshell International Court of Justice ruling.
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